Using simulations, I was able to figure out the value of an extra point in each round. But the margin of victory usually is not 14 times higher in a 14-week best ball round, so those regular season points are still relatively valuable even though there are a lot more of them to go around. At first, it made sense to me that Weeks 1 through 14 have about one-fourteenth of the importance of Weeks 15 to 17. I found it very difficult to use intuition to figure out the best way to quantify this most of my initial thoughts turned out to be misguided once I determined the best way to solve this problem by simulation. When you factor in that you have three must-win weeks, that starts to dramatically skew the importance away from regular season performances to those playoff weeks. Game over! Since the stakes vary so much from week to week in the big NFL best ball tournaments, an extra point in Week 5 is not the same as a point in Week 16. But we know they are not all equal - you could have a rough Week 5 and make the playoffs but if you have a rough Week 15 that’s game over, man. Traditional fantasy football rankings correlate well to a best ball Sit ‘n Go where each week counts equally. But one piece that most people have not figured out yet is how to incorporate a player’s schedule to figure out their value for each specific tournament. Traditional player rankings have not been perfected but they are pretty solid compared to just going into a draft blind. Even if you just draft the players with the lowest ADP each round, you are going to have a reasonable lineup. In 2022, it is fairly easy to either rank all the players in the NFL from best to worst fantasy potential or find a set of competent rankings that do so. By creating a projection for each player in the context of an average best ball roster, we specifically tailored our season-long fantasy football projections to best ball. These simulations are the basis of our NFL best ball rankings. Assuming those building blocks are present, we can calculate how each player would contribute to the team using a simulation. We know that your roster is going to have a mix of at least two quarterbacks, six wide receivers, four running backs and two tight ends. To rank players for Best Ball, we ran simulations of how every player affects your overall season projection on an average roster. Bohemian Rhapsody still might be pleasant to the ear, but the midi version isn’t a masterpiece. It’s like listening to the midi version of a song when you could be listening to mp4. If you are taking traditional fantasy football rankings and applying them to best ball, it is not a disaster, but you are going to be missing the extra edge you can get from the new format on the block. The resulting differences between season-long where you have to choose the starters each week and best ball Fantasy Football cannot be overstated. NFL best ball is mathematically fascinating with the dynamic of how only the best performers at each position count towards your overall score. SIGN UP Underdog Best Ball Mania 3 Strategy
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